India will likely experience below-normal rainfall in February and it could have a “significant adverse impact” on the standing wheat crop, which is at the flowering and filling stage, India Meteorological Department (IMD) Director-General Mrutunjay Mohapatra said on Friday. 

Crops such as mustard and chickpea (chana) may also experience early maturing, the IMD Director-General told a virtual press conference on the weather outlook for February. 

Horticultural crops such as apples and other temperate stone fruit crops may experience bud-break and early flowering due to warmer temperatures, resulting in poor fruit setting and quality. This may ultimately result in poor yield, Mohapatra said.

Intermittent light irrigation would be required to minimise the “adverse impact” and sustain the crop growth. “However, due to expected normal to below normal temperatures over Uttar Pradesh the adverse impact of cold wave on field crops will be limited,” he said. 

India is looking forward to a good wheat harvest to tide over the current tight supply situation. It is looking at a crop of 115 million tonnes. Though it produced a record 113.29 million tonnes of wheat in 2024, supplies have been tight resulting in wheat prices rising over 5 per cent year-on-year to ₹32.87 a kg. Atta (flour) prices are up nearly 5 per cent at ₹37.9 a kg. Both are near record highs.

The Indian government has reined in prices to some extent by selling wheat from the stocks maintained by the Food Corporation of India (FCI) through weekly open sales. Initially, it sold one lakh tonnes but it has now increased it to 1.5 lakh tonnes.

Rainfall in February will be below-normal in many areas across the country barring western Gujarat, southern Tamil Nadu, south-west Madhya Pradesh, he said. 

Above-normal temp

February will also experience above-normal minimum and maximum temperatures in most parts of the country except central-western parts and the southern peninsula. 

The minimum and maximum temperatures will be above normal in Rajasthan, Punjab, Uttarakhand and Ladakh but in Madhya Pradesh and adjoining areas, including Uttar Pradesh, they will be normal and below normal, Mohapatra said.

Weak La Nina conditions are currently prevailing with Nino 3.4 index being -0.9ºC. “They (weak La Nina conditions) will continue to prevail during February-April before conditions turn ENSO-neutral from May. The neutral ENSO (El Nino-Southern Oscillation) conditions will continue at least until the south-west monsoon ends in September,” the IMD Director-General said.

He said ENSO conditions began veering towards La Nina from September 2024 and the weather pattern will continue during February-April before ENSO-neutral conditions emerge in May. 

The Indian Ocean Dipole, another weather factor crucial for the country, is currently neutral and the situation will also continue for until September.

On why the country received 72 per cent deficient rainfall in January despite La Nina conditions which are related to heavy rain, Mohapatra said one of the reasons was that it was not the monsoon period.

La Nina has not been able to influence the rainfall pattern in the country because of climate change. “Also, January is a month when rainfall is generally less. It also shows high variability,” the IMD Director-General said.

Deficient rainfall in Jan

Mohapatra said rainfall in January was the fourth-lowest since 1901 and fifth-lowest since 2001. The maximum and minimum temperatures over rainfall-deficient areas were above normal, especially in the north. Temperatures were normal and below normal in southern peninsula. 

“There was a deviation of 1.04ºC from normal in the mean temperature. Since 2020, the minimum temperature has been above normal in all years,” the IMD Director-General said.

There was lack of moisture infusion from the Arabian Sea in January resulting in precipitation deficiency. The North-East monsoon ceased on January 27 as the withdrawal was delayed.